Simulating the spread of COVID-19 via a spatially-resolved susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased (SEIRD) model with heterogeneous diffusion.
Identifieur interne : 000151 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000150; suivant : 000152Simulating the spread of COVID-19 via a spatially-resolved susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased (SEIRD) model with heterogeneous diffusion.
Auteurs : Alex Viguerie [Italie] ; Guillermo Lorenzo [États-Unis] ; Ferdinando Auricchio [Italie] ; Davide Baroli [Allemagne] ; Thomas J R. Hughes [États-Unis] ; Alessia Patton [Italie] ; Alessandro Reali [Italie] ; Thomas E. Yankeelov [États-Unis] ; Alessandro Veneziani [États-Unis]Source :
- Applied mathematics letters [ 0893-9659 ] ; 2021.
Abstract
We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and aims to capture dynamics also based on human habits and geographical features. To test the model, we compare the outputs generated by a finite-element solver with measured data over the Italian region of Lombardy, which has been heavily impacted by this crisis between February and April 2020. Our results show a strong qualitative agreement between the simulated forecast of the spatio-temporal COVID-19 spread in Lombardy and epidemiological data collected at the municipality level. Additional simulations exploring alternative scenarios for the relaxation of lockdown restrictions suggest that reopening strategies should account for local population densities and the specific dynamics of the contagion. Thus, we argue that data-driven simulations of our model could ultimately inform health authorities to design effective pandemic-arresting measures and anticipate the geographical allocation of crucial medical resources.
DOI: 10.1016/j.aml.2020.106617
PubMed: 32834475
PubMed Central: PMC7361091
Affiliations:
- Allemagne, Italie, États-Unis
- District de Cologne, Géorgie (États-Unis), Rhénanie-du-Nord-Westphalie, Texas
- Aix-la-Chapelle, Austin (Texas)
- Université du Texas à Austin
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Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>PV 27100</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lorenzo, Guillermo" sort="Lorenzo, Guillermo" uniqKey="Lorenzo G" first="Guillermo" last="Lorenzo">Guillermo Lorenzo</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 E. 24th Street, Austin, TX 78712-1229, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 E. 24th Street, Austin, TX 78712-1229</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region><settlement type="city">Austin (Texas)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université du Texas à Austin</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Auricchio, Ferdinando" sort="Auricchio, Ferdinando" uniqKey="Auricchio F" first="Ferdinando" last="Auricchio">Ferdinando Auricchio</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>PV 27100</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baroli, Davide" sort="Baroli, Davide" uniqKey="Baroli D" first="Davide" last="Baroli">Davide Baroli</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Aachen Institute for Advanced Study in Computational Engineering Science (AICES), RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 2, 52062 Aachen, Germany.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Aachen Institute for Advanced Study in Computational Engineering Science (AICES), RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 2, 52062 Aachen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="1">Rhénanie-du-Nord-Westphalie</region><region type="district" nuts="2">District de Cologne</region><settlement type="city">Aix-la-Chapelle</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hughes, Thomas J R" sort="Hughes, Thomas J R" uniqKey="Hughes T" first="Thomas J R" last="Hughes">Thomas J R. Hughes</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 E. 24th Street, Austin, TX 78712-1229, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 E. 24th Street, Austin, TX 78712-1229</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region><settlement type="city">Austin (Texas)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université du Texas à Austin</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Patton, Alessia" sort="Patton, Alessia" uniqKey="Patton A" first="Alessia" last="Patton">Alessia Patton</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>PV 27100</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Reali, Alessandro" sort="Reali, Alessandro" uniqKey="Reali A" first="Alessandro" last="Reali">Alessandro Reali</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>PV 27100</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yankeelov, Thomas E" sort="Yankeelov, Thomas E" uniqKey="Yankeelov T" first="Thomas E" last="Yankeelov">Thomas E. Yankeelov</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Departments of Biomedical Engineering, Diagnostic Medicine, and Oncology, Livestrong Cancer Institutes, The University of Texas at Austin, 107 W. Dean Keeton St., Austin, TX 78712, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Departments of Biomedical Engineering, Diagnostic Medicine, and Oncology, Livestrong Cancer Institutes, The University of Texas at Austin, 107 W. Dean Keeton St., Austin, TX 78712</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region><settlement type="city">Austin (Texas)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université du Texas à Austin</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 E. 24th Street, Austin, TX 78712-1229, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 E. 24th Street, Austin, TX 78712-1229</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region><settlement type="city">Austin (Texas)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université du Texas à Austin</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Veneziani, Alessandro" sort="Veneziani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Veneziani A" first="Alessandro" last="Veneziani">Alessandro Veneziani</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Emory University, 400 Dowman Drive, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Emory University, 400 Dowman Drive, Atlanta, GA 30322</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Emory University, 400 Dowman Drive, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Computer Science, Emory University, 400 Dowman Drive, Atlanta, GA 30322</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Applied mathematics letters</title><idno type="ISSN">0893-9659</idno><imprint><date when="2021" type="published">2021</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and aims to capture dynamics also based on human habits and geographical features. To test the model, we compare the outputs generated by a finite-element solver with measured data over the Italian region of Lombardy, which has been heavily impacted by this crisis between February and April 2020. Our results show a strong qualitative agreement between the simulated forecast of the spatio-temporal COVID-19 spread in Lombardy and epidemiological data collected at the municipality level. Additional simulations exploring alternative scenarios for the relaxation of lockdown restrictions suggest that reopening strategies should account for local population densities and the specific dynamics of the contagion. Thus, we argue that data-driven simulations of our model could ultimately inform health authorities to design effective pandemic-arresting measures and anticipate the geographical allocation of crucial medical resources.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32834475</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">0893-9659</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>111</Volume><PubDate><Year>2021</Year><Month>Jan</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Applied mathematics letters</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Appl Math Lett</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Simulating the spread of COVID-19 <i>via</i> a spatially-resolved susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased (SEIRD) model with heterogeneous diffusion.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>106617</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.aml.2020.106617</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and aims to capture dynamics also based on human habits and geographical features. To test the model, we compare the outputs generated by a finite-element solver with measured data over the Italian region of Lombardy, which has been heavily impacted by this crisis between February and April 2020. Our results show a strong qualitative agreement between the simulated forecast of the spatio-temporal COVID-19 spread in Lombardy and epidemiological data collected at the municipality level. Additional simulations exploring alternative scenarios for the relaxation of lockdown restrictions suggest that reopening strategies should account for local population densities and the specific dynamics of the contagion. Thus, we argue that data-driven simulations of our model could ultimately inform health authorities to design effective pandemic-arresting measures and anticipate the geographical allocation of crucial medical resources.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Viguerie</LastName><ForeName>Alex</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lorenzo</LastName><ForeName>Guillermo</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 E. 24th Street, Austin, TX 78712-1229, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Auricchio</LastName><ForeName>Ferdinando</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Baroli</LastName><ForeName>Davide</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Aachen Institute for Advanced Study in Computational Engineering Science (AICES), RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 2, 52062 Aachen, Germany.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hughes</LastName><ForeName>Thomas J R</ForeName><Initials>TJR</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 E. 24th Street, Austin, TX 78712-1229, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Patton</LastName><ForeName>Alessia</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Reali</LastName><ForeName>Alessandro</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Architettura, Università di Pavia, Via Ferrata 3, Pavia, PV 27100, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yankeelov</LastName><ForeName>Thomas E</ForeName><Initials>TE</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Departments of Biomedical Engineering, Diagnostic Medicine, and Oncology, Livestrong Cancer Institutes, The University of Texas at Austin, 107 W. Dean Keeton St., Austin, TX 78712, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 E. 24th Street, Austin, TX 78712-1229, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Veneziani</LastName><ForeName>Alessandro</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Emory University, 400 Dowman Drive, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Emory University, 400 Dowman Drive, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>15</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Appl Math Lett</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101317302</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0893-9659</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Compartmental models</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Mathematical biology</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Mathematical epidemiology</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Mathematical modeling</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Partial differential equations</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>02</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>01</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>01</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32834475</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.aml.2020.106617</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0893-9659(20)30301-3</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">106617</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7361091</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
<ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2020 Feb;25(5):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32046819</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2020 Apr 11;395(10231):1225-1228</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32178769</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Biol Dyn. 2013;7 Suppl 1:31-46</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23157180</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Apr;93:284-286</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32145466</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;26(6):1341-1343</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32191173</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Nat Med. 2020 Jun;26(6):855-860</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32322102</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 May 12;117(19):10484-10491</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32327608</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>JAMA. 2020 Apr 21;323(15):1502-1503</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32105304</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Italie</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>District de Cologne</li><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li><li>Rhénanie-du-Nord-Westphalie</li><li>Texas</li></region><settlement><li>Aix-la-Chapelle</li><li>Austin (Texas)</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université du Texas à Austin</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Italie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Viguerie, Alex" sort="Viguerie, Alex" uniqKey="Viguerie A" first="Alex" last="Viguerie">Alex Viguerie</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Auricchio, Ferdinando" sort="Auricchio, Ferdinando" uniqKey="Auricchio F" first="Ferdinando" last="Auricchio">Ferdinando Auricchio</name><name sortKey="Patton, Alessia" sort="Patton, Alessia" uniqKey="Patton A" first="Alessia" last="Patton">Alessia Patton</name><name sortKey="Reali, Alessandro" sort="Reali, Alessandro" uniqKey="Reali A" first="Alessandro" last="Reali">Alessandro Reali</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Texas"><name sortKey="Lorenzo, Guillermo" sort="Lorenzo, Guillermo" uniqKey="Lorenzo G" first="Guillermo" last="Lorenzo">Guillermo Lorenzo</name></region><name sortKey="Hughes, Thomas J R" sort="Hughes, Thomas J R" uniqKey="Hughes T" first="Thomas J R" last="Hughes">Thomas J R. Hughes</name><name sortKey="Veneziani, Alessandro" sort="Veneziani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Veneziani A" first="Alessandro" last="Veneziani">Alessandro Veneziani</name><name sortKey="Veneziani, Alessandro" sort="Veneziani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Veneziani A" first="Alessandro" last="Veneziani">Alessandro Veneziani</name><name sortKey="Yankeelov, Thomas E" sort="Yankeelov, Thomas E" uniqKey="Yankeelov T" first="Thomas E" last="Yankeelov">Thomas E. Yankeelov</name><name sortKey="Yankeelov, Thomas E" sort="Yankeelov, Thomas E" uniqKey="Yankeelov T" first="Thomas E" last="Yankeelov">Thomas E. Yankeelov</name></country><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Rhénanie-du-Nord-Westphalie"><name sortKey="Baroli, Davide" sort="Baroli, Davide" uniqKey="Baroli D" first="Davide" last="Baroli">Davide Baroli</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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